January 6, 2008 6:31 PM PST
Gates: Curtain call for crystal ball
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In his annual Consumer Electronics Show address, the Microsoft chairman demonstrated a slew of fashionable PCs, and touted the role of computing interfaces like speech and touch, as well as announced a partnership with NBC to jointly run the site for the Olympics.
"This is my last (CES) keynote," Gates told the audience, noting that this is the first time since he was 17 that he doesn't have a full-time job at Microsoft. "What do you do on your last day?" he asked.
Gates, who is shifting to part-time work at Microsoft later this year, also used the speech to note that his software company has now shipped 100 million copies of Windows Vista.
He said that getting so many Vista PCs out will make the platform more attractive. "That's a very significant milestone for application development and specialized hardware work."
In a deal finalized just before the keynote, meanwhile, Microsoft has signed on BT Group as the first company to use the Xbox 360 as an IPTV set-top box. Gates announced plans for the game console to act as a set-top box at last year's CES.
BT Vision, which combines gaming and Microsoft's Mediaroom IPTV service, will be available to customers in the middle of 2008, Microsoft said.
Gates' CES address has become an annual tradition, a sort of tech industry State of the Union, though this may well be his last year for some time.
The annual event is Microsoft's opportunity to lay out its vision of where technology is headed and make the case for its approach, as contrasted with that of rivals such as Apple and Sony.
Not all of the products touted by Gates, however, have become smash hits. Past keynote addresses have introduced Tablet PCs and various digital household objects that have yet to become mainstream.
Last year, Gates used his appearance to show, among other things, Windows Home Server.
This year, Gates' most notable gadget is a "mobile navigator" that can be used to point at a person or place, and get more information. The software powering the technology exists within Microsoft's research labs, but Gates doesn't see this device coming to market as a standalone product. Rather, some of these capabilities are likely to find their way into other gadgets, such as cameras and phones.
In the more near-term realm, Microsoft said Samsung will start offering an adapter that lets its flat-screen TVs act as Media Center extenders. That lets the TVs show videos, pictures, and music stored on a Vista PC in another room.
As for PCs, Microsoft plans to show off a new Lamborghini laptop from Asus, as well as Lenovo's new IdeaPad consumer laptop line, which includes a model that uses flash memory rather than a hard drive for storage.
of Gates' Guitar Hero ringer.
Gates also showed off the role that speech and touch will play in the future. Microsoft has a new concept application for its Surface computer that shows how the product can tie into Windows Live services and other devices.
Gates used the tabletop Surface PC to design a custom snowboard and then send the design to his Windows mobile phone. His design included "Bill!" on the underside.
"I've got something that looks pretty good," Gates said.
Ever the fan of speech recognition technology, Gates demonstrated how mobile search can be improved by combining GPS (Global Positioning System) data with Tellme's speech recognition technology.
Entertainment and Devices unit head Robbie Bach joined Gates on stage to talk Xbox and Zune, among other things. On the Xbox front, Microsoft touted a number of statistics, including the fact that it has sold more than 17.7 million consoles, as well as the fact that the Xbox 360 has generated far more sales of games and accessories than rival consoles. Microsoft also has 10 million subscribers to its Xbox Live service.
Microsoft is also touting sales of two recent game releases. Its blockbuster, Halo 3, has sold more than 8.1 million copies since its September launch, while Mass Effect has sold 1.6 million copies in the six weeks since its launch.
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"Events like this in the broadcast format just aren't as satisfying, as great as we'll make the Olympics," Gates said.
Only illustrates how poor the coverage is by NBC. They fill their broadcast with so much marketing that the event is an afterthought. They don't cover many events live and so they wait for results and only show events where a US athlete wins and ignore the rest.
The worst coverage by NBC comes when the event is held in a timezone which makes live viewing harder. They don't even bother to try showing it live. If you are a fan of the Olympics and are willing to stay up and watch an event at 2am you better have access to some foreign broadcasters because on NBC you will likely be seeing a late night infomercial.
So with coverage like that it's no wonder Gates would say that the broadcast format isn't satisfying. If you want to watch a sport that isn't being covered by NBC or listen to the silly reporters talk then the online video is your next best option.
If you want to stay up until 4am watching live sports then you better find yourself a way of getting Canadian CBC broadcasts or Australias seven, or British BBC, or China Central TV, etc.
keeping track of his predictions? ...and the Xbox is still bleeding
money, this is a success?
Thanks... for nothing!
Gates did not innovate. He purchased software written by others. If he could not purchase their product, he drove them out of business. The future of computers was not planned by Mr. Gates. It happened in spite of him.
Want to sell ice to Eskimos? Call Bill Gates. He's your man.
Want to know which way technology is heading? Steve Jobs track
record would indicate he is the man to listen to.
DOS was better, at first. And Apple didn't innovate the GUI, it was done by Xerox and shown to both Apple and Microsoft independantly. And I believe that the Unix-based X was first on the scene, but only on high-end workstations. Windows 1.0 was around almost at the same time as the MAC, as was GEM desktop, but they both stunk compared to what's around now.
When the Internet started, Gates refused to get involved claiming, "The Internet is just a fad!". Later, he tried to buy Netscape, and when they refused, he tried to destroy them by giving away an almost identical browser."
Actually, he licensed Mosaic technology, and developed their own browser from it, much the way Netscape did. Granted, they introduced a lot of controversy into the browser market at the same time...
Microsoft's biggest win for itself was in the Office space, though. If you compare Word 2.0 to WordPerfect 5.x, you find where they really made their money. Word was LIGHTYEARS ahead of anything else on the market at the time, although it wasn't at the professional level that WP was, it made creating documents that much easier. He sold copies of Windows because of Word (and of course Solitare), and helped create the landscape that we have today.
In general they take risks, and live them out. I don't think anyone talks about Microsoft Bob in a good light, but then again most folks don't talk much about the Apple Newton much, either.
In fact, once the Bush administration clears out of DC, the post ware baby boom will be officially retired (gone.) And for Bill Gates, he's in too deep to turn back now, even if he had the YEN to.
Fare well Bill!
Well done Bill, have a good one, lets see if Jobs will match you giving away your money. Over half a billion now isn't it. Jobs is dragging his feet.
BRAVO!
His total cluelessness on the future of the WWW is just the tip of the iceberg.
Anyone with a little knowledge and even fewer morals could have stolen, lied, and strong armed his way to "success".
- Before the storm; Gates' smartest move
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by yarlq
January 10, 2008 9:51 AM PST
- Windows is a disaster waiting to happen.
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See all 84 Comments >>With each iteration it bloats and bloats and comes closer to forcing MS to admit they really don't know how it works - witness the corrections to corrections that come out almost daily or their inability to hit any target date for SPs (SP3 for XP and SP1 for Vista are each years late.
But the more ominous problem is this: some huge portion of America's businesses, utilities, gov't agencies and other organizations that affect the public health, safety and welfare are dependent on Windows.
One good uber-virus and there goes our civilization: businesses can't schedule trucking (no more food), utilities lose much control over aspects of power distribution (no heat, no lights ... no computers to fix each other ...), investors can't talk to the stock market; industry crashes.
When you consider all that is riding on Windows - it's a lot more than your email files - MS should be held to a higher level of accountability than a game producer.
Unlike game software, Windows really could bring down the country.
If I were Gates, I sure as hell would take the money and run - as far as I could legally distance myself from the greatest time-waster known to mankind: MS Windoze.