March 31, 2008 11:23 AM PDT

Analyst: Apple on track to sell 45 million iPhones next year

For Apple to sell 45 million iPhones next year, it would have to quadruple its sales from 2008.

Yes, that's more than a bit optimistic. The analyst who originally made that sales prediction for Apple back before the phone was even launched is at it again, though, on Monday explaining how he thinks it could happen.

iPhone(Credit: Apple)

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster insists--despite consensus that his prediction is entirely overeager--that Apple will do so by introducing a 3G version of the iPhone in the second or third quarter of this year, as well as a lower-price version of the device in the range of $200 to $300 by the beginning of next year.

Munster also predicts that making the iPhone available in new countries will double the market for the device this year and next, and that the addition of new games and features like remote purchases will add up to 45 million.

Sure, the iPhone is a popular device, but quadrupling sales? Digest this prediction with the usual grain of salt.

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Add a Comment (Log in or register) 14 comments
Wait... I thought we were talking about this year?
by ibeetle March 31, 2008 11:45 AM PDT
So I am reading along...

...as well as a lower-priced version of the device in the range of
$200 to $300 by the beginning of next year.

and... wait... next year?... how is lowering the price in '09 going to
boost sales in 2008?
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The Economy
by john55440 March 31, 2008 12:21 PM PDT
The iPhone is an unnecessary consumer luxury item, and the poor economy will slow it's sales.

The economy is so bad, that Consumer Confidence is at it's lowest level since 1992, and the economy isn't going to get better any time soon.

When people are having a hard time paying their mortgages, paying higher gas prices, paying higher heating price, paying higher food prices, paying higher medical costs...the last thing they need is an iPhone with data contract.
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Newness Exponential Factor
by johnalphonse April 1, 2008 11:07 AM PDT
I believe it's not so outrageous a statement at the historical point on the curve where the iPhone is presently. It just came out ten minutes ago, figuratively speaking, and exponential growth is not so uncommon in early-stage product success as word just starts to spread. I mean, for example, quadrupling 100 sales is much easier than quadrupling 1,000,000. It may be tough to increase sales fourfold in one year after market saturation, but "10 minutes" isn't much time to do much saturating...
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