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October 8, 2005 2:28 PM PDT

Google ETA? 300 years to index the world's info

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PHOENIX--It could take 300 years to index all the world's information and make it searchable, Google Chief Executive Eric Schmidt predicted on Saturday at the Association of National Advertisers annual conference here.

"We did a math exercise and the answer was 300 years," Schmidt said in response to an audience question asking for a projection of how long the company's mission will take. "The answer is it's going to be a very long time."

Of the approximately 5 million terabytes of information out in the world, only about 170 terabytes have been indexed, he said earlier during his speech.

schmidt

Schmidt admitted to the audience of advertisers that when he first arrived at Google four years ago, he viewed ads from a skeptical consumer standpoint. Shown ads on Google, he thought "You've got to be kidding! People actually click on this stuff? And they do."

He said he quickly realized, though, that "ads actually do have value if you can figure out the right ones to show."

Technology and the interactivity it enables, such as the ability to measure an Internet ad's success rate by viewing how many people click on it, is shifting power in the advertising industry from executives at corporations to consumers, he said.

"The power is moving from us to the end user; it's occurring by the power of the personal computer, by the power of the cell phone," he said. "Thirty years ago we would make the decision (about ads). Now, that person, that individual makes that decision."

Advertising is increasing on the Internet and cable television, and showing modest to no growth in newspapers and magazines, Schmidt said. "The cost per revenue dollar of online ad systems is so much lower than" for offline advertising, he said.

Of the estimated $283 billion spent on advertising in the United States, $11.3 billion is spent on the Internet, Schmidt said.

Despite the slowdown in print advertising, Google is testing a campaign in which the search giant is using its audience targeting technology to help customers place ads in magazines, he said.

Schmidt predicted there will always be ads on the Internet but that there may be an "ad-free subset" of the Internet that might offer a different way for people to pay for things, such as using micro-payments.

During the question-and-answer session, audience members turned to social, ethical and legal topics. One question dealt with criticism Google and Yahoo have received for cooperating with Chinese government censorship efforts.

"The technology is neutral. It can be applied for good or evil," he said. "Overwhelmingly, the message of technology is a positive one."

Asked to explain why Google has submitted a proposal to provide the city of San Francisco with free wireless Internet service, Schmidt said the plan arose out of work several engineers did on a system that would allow companies to make money offering such a service. "It's an interesting experiment," he said. "If it scales and if it is successful, we think it's going to be very good for the world."

Schmidt also responded to a question about complaints Google has endured, including a lawsuit filed by the Authors Guild over its plan to digitize books and make them searchable online. Google's Print Library Project adheres to U.S. copyright law, he said. A "fair use" provision under the law allows for excerpts of copyrighted material to be used and Google will only display snippets of copyrighted text, he said. "That model seems to be durable," he said. "We're very, very careful if copyright is owned..."

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Add a Comment (Log in or register) 25 comments (Showing first 20 comments)
World of Mind and Mondy
by Believe Brain October 8, 2005 4:21 PM PDT
World of Mind and Money

(1) 300 years to index the world's info.
But billions indexes would not become a Mind or give you a Mind or a stong AI.

(2) Google?s Mind defined its own ?fair?!
Quote: A ?fair use? provision under the law ?of copyrighted material ..., ?that model seems to be durable,?
Let?s don?t use ?Love? mind to measure Google, they simply do not have a mind to care about social, ethical and legal matters.

(3) Tech is for money and is not neutral.
Quote: ?The technology is neutral. It can be applied for good or evil,?
They only mind $$. Is that good or evil?

.. to provide S. F with free wireless ? service ?, Quote: ? ? we think it?s going to be very good for the world.?

Just stick with $$. Please don?t even mention ?services? and ?goodness? for the ?world?.

(4) Mind and Money
Mind and Money do not mix just like oil and vinegar. Allow me to give all the Web platforms builders a hint, the only two indexes words they would ever need are Mind and Money.

There is no way to index mankind?s Mind ? even a strong AI, unless you understand how Mind form the imaginary ?structure?. That is another hint for guys and girls who wish to ?guru? a lot of money in IT and AI or any future innovations.

Regards
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Tech & Ad & Happiness
by Believe Brain October 8, 2005 5:10 PM PDT
The goal of life is happiness. If you agree, then read on?

(1) The only good thing about Tech is: it give you ?easier? ?tools? and get your money. Otherwise, Tech is the source of all the headaches for social, ethical, legal matters and daily life events ? you can list several thousands ?indexes? yourself, if not millions.
(2) Tech are ?tools? to easy our laziness. But we call it efficiency and productivity in the competitions which were initiated by Tech ?tools?.
(3) Tech is nothing but ?renovations? to fix problems for previous ?innovated? Tech.

As for Advertising, basically it has the same character as Tech.

(4) The only good thing about AD is: it gives you ?easier? access for getting your money. Otherwise, AD is the source, too, of all the headaches for social, ethical, legal matters and daily life events.
(5) AD is a ?tool? to brainwash your ?belief? and ?confuse? your wallet. But we call it effective marketing in the competitions which were initiated by AD.
(6) AD is nothing but ?renovations? to ADD more confusing on previous ?innovated? AD.

Hopefully, by understanding their superficial ?goodness?, your life will be much happier.
Reply to this comment
It all goes hand in hand and life is great.
by ntrsource October 9, 2005 10:14 AM PDT
Tech, Money and Advertising!

It all goes hand in hand and life is great.
Free service without advertising will never last, someone has to pool in the dough. New and smaller companies finally have a chance to run ads in places that in the past has only been for the big guys. With technology and the Internet it is now a leveled playing field even if you choose to advertise with GOOGLE. Let me ask you a simple question, when was the last time you clicked on an advertisement while using the GOOGLE search engine? why did it become so silent out there? I think the answer must be that not a whole lot are clicking, at least I don't know of anyone that ever clicked on any of these ads.
Should they make money while combining any of these free services or do you think it is very wrong to make any money? Simple question: do you work for free, do you get a paycheck for showing up or do you just have to work a little to get paid? of course they have to make money combining these technologies so go ahead and mix it all up because in doing so you will be able to afford investments into new innovations and technologies which we then later can embrace.
You want something for free? go to http://www.ntrsource.com get free VoIP from any PC to telephones in the USA and Canada. Do they have ads bundled with this free service... yes, yes, yes and it is all quality and technology that you will love. Remember thou, it is FREE for your enjoinment.
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300 years! Google's got 4 billion, why not improve the state of automation?
by Jake Leone October 9, 2005 8:45 PM PDT
It amazes me that 2 guys with 4 billion to spend still can't think outside of the box when it comes to saving human labor.

When it comes to computer automation, we are still in (comparatively) the Vacuum tube era. And companies still would rather buy human cheap human beings than think about improving/expanding the indexation methods, or come closer to natural language input/output capability.

And besides information, there's a whole world of computer creativity which has hardly been tapped. Because no one can talk to (only command) a computer.

No one's even come close to passing the Touring test, but we have the CPU horse power get close. Just coming close could give us the ability to index information in a natural language system.

Google is spending 4 billion to create a big tape recorder.

Spend some $ on this:

- Model the communication capabilities between small areas of the brain.
- Figure out the neuron mix (visual, auditory) that gives us the ability to recognize objects (and tie them to words) (something almost any mammal can do). Model this, and you're on your way.
- Create a workable API, that can model human neural communication.
- Get a handle, create and model, a building set, that can take small visual peices of information and create short sentences about what is there in a (AREA and Vector) relation.
- Index, not just on words, but on other qualities (create a hippocampus, man!)

Let's take a lesson from Hollerith on this one man!
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It took deep thought 7 and a half million years....
by toxicorange October 10, 2005 5:31 AM PDT
300 Years doesn't seem much to index life the universe and everything. It strikes me that maybe Schmidt missed the odd thing or two?
Things he wished he'd included might be...
Microsoft internal memos
The Ballmer Tapes
The Road Ahead

Tox
Reply to this comment
From Google to Codonology
by Codonology October 10, 2005 10:20 AM PDT
Next wave of technology has to do something like "Direct Understanding Exchange". Google has set their foot for the first step on such direction. It will take a new technology, called "Codonology" to finish the rest of journey. Please visit the website: www.Codonology.com.
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Typical arrogance from Google
by Bill Dautrive October 10, 2005 7:10 PM PDT
Through all this, do you notice how they actually think they have a right to index everything, copyrights be damned.

Google has the potential to be 1000x more damaging then MS ever thought of being.

For some reason they have this image of innocence, when they are just an unethical company looking to profit by preying on the work and privacy of others. Look at all the people signed up for gmail, a viral mail system that indexes everything that goes through your box, and this has raised few flags. If MS did that, people would be screaming bloody murder.

It just goes to show that the ignorant masses accept anything and everything, until proven to be detrimental, then it is nearly impossible to remove the problem.

Google is the next MS.
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Use a computer
by October 10, 2005 10:37 PM PDT
Instead of doing all this stuff by hand, why not use a computer?
Reply to this comment
Stop using Gmail? Don't think so.
by October 11, 2005 4:26 AM PDT
Im a consumer of Google products like GMail. I've read the Terms and Conditions and Privacy documentation on more than one occassion (when there was a rumored change in the documentation).

I personally have no objections to the data mining that occurs, as I personally do not feel my privacy has been infringed. I open up an email from the New York Times and I get an ad about cheap flights to New York on the side... How intrusive is that? Quite bearable if you ask me.

My point is that as a consumer, ignorant or not, I do not see anything wrong with context-specific advertising or other forms of data mining that 'intelligently' market themselves to me. Better than being the 1,000,000th visitor to a site or being offered to buy emoticons, is it not?
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Umm.. No, but good try.
by mentorkyrom October 11, 2005 1:10 PM PDT
Prying on the privacy of others? No sir, I hate to break this bit of news to you. But there is no one at Google who sits there and reads the websites that you go to or your love letters from your girlfriends. There IS a guy, however, who sits in a comfy chair at the Google Labs who writes code that pics up on (as used in a previous comment) e-mail for the new york times and presents you air-plane tickets to N.Y. There is no TRUE artificial intelligence that's spying on all your dirty little secrets of browsing habbits.

Google as the next microsoft? OH NO! Microsoft has brought you.... the OS that 95% (and most likely you) use, game consoles, and the common day PC as we know it- AHHH!!! Google has brought us: Searching that ACTUALLY works, satalite images of the world, 2.5gb's of mail space, and instant messaging, program and countless other tools, and wirless hotspots ALL FOR FREE. Wow, your right we should be scared of a company that gives everything away. That said, how can you possably compare Google and Microsoft? Their business practices are very different as well as the core of their products.

But good try,
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Why I dont mind google.
by Madrone October 11, 2005 6:20 PM PDT
Its quite simple.

Google provides me with services (Gmail, searching, maps, etc) that I use, which I do not have to pay for.

Unless I want to pay for such services, I will have to deal with ads, the ads on google are pretty unobtrusive (no images).

Regarding personal information/scanning. Most emails are scanned for virus, spam, etc, I dont mind targeted advertisements, do I feel my privacy been invaded? no more then anything else on the internet,
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